Analisis Indeks Kekeringan dengan Menggunakan Metode Statistik Theory Of Run di Kecamatan Manggalewa Kabupaten Dompu

Abstrak

In recent years, Indonesia has experienced severe droughts in several areas. Climate change has caused temperatures in Indonesia to become hotter and made rainfall patterns unpredictable. Indonesia is an agrarian country that relies heavily on the agricultural sector as a source of livelihood for many people. However, the droughts occurring in several regions of Indonesia have resulted in losses for farmers as their agricultural crops fail, leading to a decrease in the income of the local communities.

Drought index analysis is conducted in Manggalewa District using the Theory of Run method with the aim of predicting the duration of rainfall over a 10-year period. The calculation of drought analysis using the Theory of Run method in Manggalewa District, Dompu Regency, is represented by the rainfall station in Dompu as the influential rainfall station.

The research findings indicate that during the period from 2003 to 2022, the longest duration of drought occurred in 11 instances, spanning from March 2014 to January 2015, with a deficit value of 430.05 mm below the average normal rainfall. On the other hand, the longest duration of wet months occurred in 12 instances, from March 2021 to February 2022. In the period from 2023 to 2032, the longest duration of drought lasted for 8 months, from February to September 2027. The most severe deficit occurred in December 2030 to January 2031, with a value of 235.93 mm below the average normal rainfall. Additionally, there were 6 instances of prolonged wet months, which took place from August 2025 to January 2026. These research findings can be further developed and utilized in analyzing planting patterns for agricultural purposes.